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    Clash Royale The Butterfly Effect in Balance Changes

    May 15, 2021

    Clash Royale The Butterfly Effect in Balance Changes

    The Butterfly Effect in Balance Changes

    Posted: 15 May 2021 03:07 PM PDT

    Something common in balance discussions is pointing out butterfly effects and how the rise of one card can be the collapse of another. I wanted to finally address it. Is this effect real? I believe years of balancing have shown a definitive answer.

    What is the butterfly effect? An example would be:

    1. Buff Witch, one of the worst cards.
    2. This indirectly nerfs Prince, P.E.K.K.A., and others, so they become much weaker.
    3. Buffing them indirectly nerfs Mega Knight and Giant, so do they also need to be buffed?
    4. So a small change had an extreme impact.

    But does this really hold?

    In Theory

    I will have to make a few questionable simplifications. Let's take a card A that is balanced. Assume it has an unfavorable matchup against card B: 55-45. B has a 2% usage. Then B is buffed, rising to 20% usage. Since B is stronger, the matchup grows to 65-35. Note that this was actually an overbuff.

    The math of this is more complicated than it looks. Anyway, the winrate of A will drop from 50% to 47.1%. So even with pretty extreme numbers, this change was not so meta-defining. Okay, so let's take this to practice.

    In Practice

    Just to address something. If a card gets overbuffed or has a massive matchup dependence, this is not the butterfly effect. The card is just problematic and needs a nerf or a rework.

    When we isolate the supposed butterfly effect, a few considerations make it more washed out.

    • An ocean of other changes

    The simplified idea doesn't quite work out. All changes add up with their little percentages. When you think of an indirect nerf, it's most likely canceled by indirect buffs that you aren't even thinking of, from meta changes, changed synergies.

    • Rebound effects

    If a card starts getting used too much, the decks that get hard-countered by it start using counters, so the increased matchup-dependence evens out. For example, when Mother Witch got buffed, some of the top Graveyard players started using Fireball.

    Also, the decks that hard-counter need to worry less about needing responses to that card. In the previous example, many decks with Mother Witch don't have adequate Graveyard counters because they have her.

    • New card releases

    A few years ago, the argument may have been more relevant. With 60 cards in the game, the average card would have a 13% usage. With 100 cards in the game, this becomes 8%. With more cards in the game, increases in usage are becoming ever more irrelevant, which was one of the theoretical factors in the butterfly effect.

    • Player Psychology

    You might think it's this is an argument in favor of the butterfly effect, but it's not. It just shows people's misguidance makes changes appear bigger than they actually are.

    In Reality

    My first wake-up call that the butterfly effect is just not present was the Zappies rework a few years ago to target air. They were used a lot more, but Inferno Dragon remained popular. Since then, we have had a ton of evidence against it, like that the introduction of recruits to counter Three Musketeer didn't work (and which, according to Seth, was misguided by the butterfly effect).

    Some of the strongest evidence is ongoing: Mother Witch's buff and how it has barely affected Graveyard's performance in grands. To outline this:

    • Graveyard has been doing only slightly worse than usual this season (7% usage, 54% winrate) and pros are using some different decks compared to before.
    • Mother Witch went from 0% usage to 20% (and 59% winrate, clearly an overbuff)

    Conclusion

    After observing balances for a long time, I've found that the biggest factor of how strong a card is... is just how strong the card is. You need a massive offset to affect a particular card. Something like:

    Wizard is weak, Executioner is weak, Fire Spirits are weak, Witch is weak, Furnace is weak. FIVE HARD-COUNTERS TO MINION HORDE. What if they get buffed?

    Only something extreme like this can add up to a visible butterfly effect. So people need to stop worrying about it.

    submitted by /u/Mew_Pur_Pur
    [link] [comments]

    List of first attack speed (more info in comments)

    Posted: 15 May 2021 01:45 PM PDT

    They stopped responding, just wanted my account back. Wanted 5 years badge on my phone

    Posted: 15 May 2021 01:27 AM PDT

    One of the craziest endings I’ve ever had. Zappies shot re directs miner to barb barrel at the last second

    Posted: 15 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT

    My battle ram is drunk

    Posted: 15 May 2021 10:54 AM PDT

    Why you should nerf elite barbarian... It is a boat deck. Wasn't even trying to win

    Posted: 15 May 2021 08:30 AM PDT

    Nothing just me and my opponent doing big brain plays.

    Posted: 15 May 2021 06:57 AM PDT

    We both must have been mad about the same thing

    Posted: 15 May 2021 04:53 PM PDT

    I'm just going to say it.

    Posted: 15 May 2021 04:19 PM PDT

    Mega Knight isn't OP at all. I think the problem with him is that he's one of the early available legendaries, and at a time when most cards aren't level 9. He's just an absolute destructive force when he's over leveled and people don't know how to defend him. Being that he's available early, he's also, ignoring probabilities, easier to upgrade by virtue of getting him when only a few are available. If he came out around arena 11 or 12, I think he'd be seen as less evil for the people who complain about him.

    submitted by /u/INeededAnAccount69
    [link] [comments]

    Has anyone else noticed that clash is up to 28 in the App Store? Pretty cool to see it finally trending up again.

    Posted: 15 May 2021 03:56 PM PDT

    0.1 second difference

    Posted: 15 May 2021 08:19 AM PDT

    Saw a video yesterday of the bandit dealing damage after 0 seconds. Now the bandit completely ignores the freeze?

    Posted: 15 May 2021 02:37 PM PDT

    How could I improve my deck? I’m in arena 12

    Posted: 15 May 2021 08:02 PM PDT

    is there a challenge for hogs? look at my opponents decks. all i am playing is hog

    Posted: 15 May 2021 04:07 PM PDT

    I’ve hit 5200 with this Deck but E Giant just torches me every time it’s also very heavy, just looking for suggestions for changes in the deck

    Posted: 15 May 2021 02:13 PM PDT

    How to improve this deck?

    Posted: 15 May 2021 07:08 PM PDT

    Valkyrie blocks battle ram from two crown

    Posted: 15 May 2021 07:58 AM PDT

    I think my CR is broke

    Posted: 15 May 2021 03:40 PM PDT

    Bots in clash royale? I just got to electro valley on my alt and I have gone against people with basic names and one of two decks are they bots?

    Posted: 15 May 2021 06:57 PM PDT

    Bait defences by attacking opposite lane with a mini push

    Posted: 15 May 2021 08:00 AM PDT

    The issue that nobody talks about.

    Posted: 15 May 2021 02:02 AM PDT

    For some time now, this game has gone under heavy criticism for its lack of quality in many things, such as content, transparency, and play style.

    Yes, the community has every right to be mad at changes that affect them the most, such as the introduction of clan wars 2 or changes to trophy gains/losses. Topics like these (these are just examples) are frequently discussed but that does not mean we ignore the other issues

    However, I have one particular, irritating issue. The issue that affects me the most. It is the fact that so many cards brought disorder to the meta that matches are determined more by the deck itself vs. the skill of the player. The basic structure of the meta has not changed significantly for over a year.

    I understand that we should have diversity in this game. But magic archer effortlessly taking down half a tower simply because they are at the bridge? Fisherman with the full capacity to reel in a PEKKA that is trying to stop a royal giant? Royal recruits applying unfair pressure due to its splitting ability, therefore you defend one lane which is just as costly and you lose your other tower? Elite barbarians being similar to how they were in 2016/2017? Lightning with its excessively large range? Fireball with its high damage output + knockback capabilities and is therefore included in most decks today (which has the capacity to significantly reduce an entire push for only 4 elixir, or take out enemy defenses efficiently for 4 elixir only)

    There are so many more examples I could give but to me, I believe this is a fair amount to show my frustration. It baffles me how people here can justify a card that is blatantly absurd and should not belong in this game.

    As a result of this mindset, where some players support certain cards, we play in a meta that never changes. Let us say a card got nerfed that belonged in many overwhelming meta decks. What is the usual response? Just replace the card, so it is slightly less overwhelming, if it even changed. As a result, the meta never changed. And this example is very apparent in this game today.

    I am tired of only about 10 cards being changed every 3 months. It is absolutely pathetic and as a result they feel as if they are only short-term changes. Sure, the first couple of weeks after a balance change are usually in a frenzy, but eventually it just returns to the same old. Instead, it should be 20 or 30 cards, or even more. That would introduce so much more variety into our meta and it would be quite amusing to play in

    Change is what I'm asking for. It doesn't have to be necessary to nerf the top cards; why not buff the other, underused cards? Or revert them to a state where they were considered an overpowered card back then. Such as when executioner did about 800 damage in one swing, or when PEKKA had long range, I don't know. We don't have to push these changes, but these types of changes would be a great because it would spice things up and many cards would have a much more even playing field. Players no longer have to be forced to use only a few select cards and they have a much wider variety of cards at their disposal. As a result, victories doesn't have to rest in the deck so much but rather in the skill of the player.

    There are so many other ideas, but the goal is change to these cards and to this meta. I understand that a majority are clan war players or something and as a result, as the majority you will have some way to speak out to the developers. But myself, I don't see a lot of people hold this particular opinion so I feel like a minority. And I am; I never play ladder, since I disagree with the system. Instead, I consistently play in CCs/GCs, where everything is fairly equal and I don't have to worry about leveling cards, so it places more emphasis on skill. Now you probably understand why I'm speaking out about my concern; because I want this game to based on skill as much as possible. Because if a video game isn't based on skill, what's the point?

    The concept of this game is truly entertaining. Although, I will have to agree (not my quote) that this game is like a toxic ex. But I feel like it's still possible to make change. In my opinion, the meta started to deteriorate around elixir golem's introduction. I'm sure many of you remember how chaotic elixir golem, as it required little skill (just basically spam and you win...). The developers approached the situation correctly and nerfed it accordingly (along with its support troops), and today it is a fairly balanced card and is a viable card to use. This could be the case for the excessively used cards we have right now.

    TL;DR - the meta never changes, there are cards that cause more harm than good to the game, decks determine the match instead of the skill of the player, and we should fix this issue.

    submitted by /u/PoruFenikkusu
    [link] [comments]

    Wild cards

    Posted: 15 May 2021 05:34 PM PDT

    We need a feature where we can select the amount of wild cards we want to use, say we want to put 1 legendary into a miner and one into a lumberjack

    submitted by /u/deleted_my_happiness
    [link] [comments]

    Sad freeze fail

    Posted: 15 May 2021 10:56 AM PDT

    1 hp match

    Posted: 15 May 2021 07:50 AM PDT
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