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    Clash Royale How does something like this even happen?

    March 10, 2021

    Clash Royale How does something like this even happen?

    How does something like this even happen?

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 02:36 PM PST

    Why would you spend more and get less? Is this a joke?

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 01:13 AM PST

    New Legendary Spell Idea, the Witch's Brew!

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 10:45 AM PST

    Anyone else notice this? trololol.

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 03:50 PM PST

    [Effort Post] What an analysis of 688k battles tells us about Ladder Matchmaking

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 10:22 PM PST

    Introduction:

    Since 2016, there have been countless posts claiming matchmaking is rigged and the largest api investigation I've found on this sub is 100,000 battles. Today I am presenting my findings on my analysis of 688,906 battles. After investigating the trophy win/loss algorithm, I decided to look into if there is any truth to the rigged matchmaking theory by using the official Clash Royale API. For this investigation, I wanted to show whether or not the cards in player A's deck have an effect on the cards in player B's deck. In more statistical terms, we can tell if these two variables (Cards in both players decks) are independent by using the chi-square test. In this post, I will detail the findings of 688906 battles taken between March 7th and March 10th 2021.

    How this investigation was done:

    All raw and analyzed data points are summarized in this google sheet.

    Method:

    For each trophy range that I investigated, I started with a single tag, looked at the ladder battles that player played that happened to be in the range I was investigating, got the tags of the starting player's opponents and repeated the process 4 or 5 times. I kept track of all the battles that I had already checked to prevent duplicate battles from being counted. When I found a battle that satisfied the range, I kept track of the number of times card A appeared in the opponents deck, given that card B was in the deck of the player I was checking. I limited the range to 100 trophies to limit how long the code took to run and the accuracy of the data as the meta shifts significantly even by a few hundred trophies.

    Analysis:

    For data analysis, I calculated the total number of times a card showed up in the data. I then determined a card's usage rate (times played / 8*total battles). I then normalized the usage rates and used that to calculate the expected values for the chi-square test. I needed these values normalized to be able to answer the question, "What is the probability that in a randomly chosen battle, one player will have card A and the opponent will have card B?"

    To get observed values, I divided by the normalized number of times played. This gets me the experimental probability that when a battle happens, one player will have card A and the other will have card B. These are the expected values. With observed values and expected values, I could run the chi-square test and determine the chi-square value for this data set. The chi-square values for all these tests were incredibly low (less than 0.0065), which means that the two variables, Cards in your deck and cards in your opponents deck, are independent.

    For those interested in the technical side of this investigation:

    To collect the data, I used a recursive tree with a depth n depending on how many battles I needed (n = 4 gave me between 12000 and 70000 battles, n = 5 gives about 250000). I stored my data in nested python dictionaries, which I used to analyze the data. Then I created a pandas DataFrame and then exported it to excel. HERE is a link to the a Github repository with the python code I used. The file battleTags is cleared after finishing a category to increase the algorithm speed, the separation of 200 trophies prevents there from being any battles from being double counted in different trophy ranges.

    The reason the number of battles varies throughout the range is because I used a recursive tree to collect this data and the amount of data that gets returned varies wildly.

    Results:

    Again, the results are summarized in this google sheet . Here is a small snapshot of the results. The average chi-square value is a measure of (on average) how independent the cards are in the given trophy range. There is some deviation between these values, but in a system with 101 degrees of freedom, these values are incredibly low

    ​

    Trophy Range Number of Battles Analyzed Average chi square value
    4400-4500 235791 0.004048862745
    4700-4800 82850 0.00392622549
    5000-5100 112765 0.002557490196
    5300-5400 150846 0.001509931373
    5600-5700 59228 0.003168990196
    5900-6000 47426 0.005374352941

    The chi-square value does tend to decrease as the size of the data set increases, which means that the more battles that are analyzed the more accurate the data gets. These are chi-square values, not p-values. With chi-square values this low, with 102 degrees of freedom, the chance of these two variables being dependent is almost infinitesimally low.

    Conclusion:

    The purpose of this investigation is to investigate whether the cards in player A's deck have an effect on the cards in player B's deck. When analyzing the raw data from this investigation, it was found that the chi-square values were incredibly low. Therefore, we can conclude that the two variables are independent and the cards in your deck have no effect on the cards in your opponents deck.

    Acknowledgements:

    I have to give a huge shout out and thanks to u/edihau for helping me with preventing double counting, narrowing my search range and part of the statistics side of this project.

    I also would like to mention my former clan-mate phil1111 for his help on the data analysis and clan family member rpacoolguy for help with starting building the algorithm.

    Further Investigation:

    -The code I used in this investigation can easily be altered to check for abnormalities in Clan War matchmaking and examine how bot accounts below 4k affect these numbers. I can also examine card use rates as a function of trophies.

    -One other plausible explanation for matchmaking being rigged is that people are matched up by win streaks. This would sidestep the investigation I did as the cards in your deck are likely to be independent of win streaks.

    Thanks for sticking to the end!

    TLDR: Matchmaking is not rigged.

    submitted by /u/NovaLightCR
    [link] [comments]

    This game cracks me up sometimes.

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 07:27 AM PST

    People can't even play pointless party modes likes infinite elixir decks without copying decks.

    Just went against the same exact deck 4 games in a row (before someone says I'm complaining because I lost, I went 3-1).

    Come on people this is your chance to try different stuff. Don't be a sheep even in meaningless modes. Don't make the game more boring than it already is.

    submitted by /u/Jwill25
    [link] [comments]

    Sparky moves for no man, no matter how good the hair

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 11:20 AM PST

    In my opinion, since the Missions have been removed, why not bring the Achievements back? but redesigning them.

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 04:56 PM PST

    Since CW2, Quests have been removed and It was a good way to get good chests, but since there are no more, why not give Achievements a chance? with better prizes in addition to gems,It would be nice

    submitted by /u/CrossSans20
    [link] [comments]

    Amazing deck for Nery's Elixir Golem Extravaganza!

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 03:30 AM PST

    How many wins do I need to get in order to finish top 1000 in a global tournament?

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 07:03 PM PST

    Dear redditors,

    I went 26-5 with 48 crowns in the GT. I read on previous reddit posts that 25 wins would be enough to get top 1k in a gt, but I was wondering if it would be the same for this tournament since it is a 5 day GT. Has anyone here finished top 1000 recently or know someone who has finished top 1000 recently? And if so, how many wins they got to finish top 1k?

    submitted by /u/DefaultPixel
    [link] [comments]

    New Card Idea: The Headhunter!

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 06:34 AM PST

    Battle healer forget to hover

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 12:20 AM PST

    Card Reworks Poll Data

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 02:42 AM PST

    Ohai! A while back I made a poll about card reworks. Nothing has been balanced since.

    Q: Select every card you believe should be reworked (major changes in how it plays, i.e. cost change or multiple stats changed). Skip a row if a card shouldn't be reworked. Don't skip a row based on fear that a rework may fail.

    All cards in the game were listed, going from less to more expensive, and the two options were "Absolutely rework" and "Probably rework". You could choose one of the two, or neither.

    Before assessing the outliers, I will do the following adjustments:

    • The total responses were 243. Curiously, that's the 5th power of 3. I showed the poll on Deckshop, OJ's discord, this subreddit, the ClashRoyaleSerious subreddit, and I took it myself.
    • I'll mention the actual results, but I'll really consider a score that multiplies "Absolutely rework" by 1, "Probably rework" by 0.5, and adjust so the lowest score becomes 0 to account for 'noise' (the lowest voted card was Giant with a score of 11, so I subtracted 11 from all scores to make things more clear).

    In every category, I'll list the cards under/after their respective score, then two numbers next to them. The first number will be the number of "Absolutely rework" votes and the second will be the number of "Probably rework" votes.

    Edit: Just abbreviated some names to make everything fit on one row and ordered cards based on the votes, everything should still be clear.

    Cards with low scores (0-14.5)
    Score 0 0.5 2.5 3
    Card(s) Giant 3-16 Baby Dragon 3-17 Poison 6-15 Bandit 3-22
    Fireball 5-13 Musketeer 4-20
    Dart Goblin 5-18
    Arrows 6-16
    Zap 7-14
    Dark Prince 8-12
    Score 3.5 4 4.5 5.5
    Card(s) Goblin Cage 4-21 Mega Minion 4-22 Bats 5-21 Lumberjack 4-25
    Goblin Gang 5-19 Giant Snowball 5-20 Ice Spirit 6-19 Skeleton Army 8-17
    Mini P.E.K.K.A. 5-19 Battle Ram 6-18 Spear Goblins 8-17
    Barbarians 7-15
    Prince 7-15
    Score 6.5 7.5 8 8.5
    Card(s) Magic Archer 9-17 Electro Wizard 8-21 Goblin Giant 8-22 Mortar 9-21
    Ice Golem 10-15 Royal Hogs 10-17
    Skeletons 11-13
    Score 9 9.5 10 11
    Card(s) Princess 10-20 Royal Ghost 9-23 Bomb Tower 6-30 Barbarian Barrel 11-22
    Inferno Drag 10-20 Rocket 13-15 Fly Machine 11-20
    Archers 11-18
    Score 11.5 12 12.5 13
    Card(s) Giant Skelly 12-21 Electro Dragon 12-22 Night Witch 12-23 Rascals 10-28
    Tesla 12-23
    Score 13.5 14 14.5
    Card(s) Goblin Barrel 15-19 Goblin 9-32 Ram Rider 14-23
    Bowler 12-26 Sparky 16-19

    ​

    Cards with medium scores (15-34.5)
    Score 16 16.5 17 17.5
    Card(s) Hunter 12-30 Knight 12-31 P.E.K.K.A. 18-20 Royal Giant 16-25
    Valkyrie 15-24 Skeleton Dragons 14-27 Lightning 19-18
    Score 18.5 19 20 21
    Card(s) Guards 15-29 Barbarian Hut 17-26 Electro Spirit 7-48 Skeleton Barrel 20-24
    Lava Hound 17-25 Cannon Cart 21-20
    Inferno 18-23
    Golem 18-23
    Score 22.5 23 24 24.5
    Card(s) Ice Wizard 14-39 Firecracker 17-34 Mega Knight 17-16 Goblins 19-33
    Hog Rider 23-21 Tombstone 17-34
    Zappies 20-28
    Score 25 27 28 29
    Card(s) RRecruits 20-32 Clone 18-40 Miner 21-36 Elite Barbros 23-34
    Wall Breakers 24-28 Bomber 22-34
    Score 30 30.5 34 34.5
    Card(s) RDelivery 25-32 Cannon 23-37 X-Bow 26-38 Balloon 30-31
    Tornado 23-37 Graveyard 27-36

    ​

    Cards with high scores (35+)
    Score 35 44 46.5 52
    Card(s) Fisherman 30-32 Minion Horde 39-32 Executioner 36-43 Electro Giant 43-40
    Witch 45-36
    Score 54.5 55.5 59 62
    Card(s) Heal Spirit 38-55 Furnace 47-39 Battle Healer 47-46 Earthquake 50-46
    Freeze 47-37
    Score 63 63.5 65
    Card(s) Wizard 55-38 Three Musketeers 55-39 Rage 52-48

    ​

    The top 5

    74.5: Fire Spirits 59-53. So 24% of respondents are sure they want it reworked, and 22% are hesitant.

    74.5: Elixir Golem 62-47. That's 25.5% of respondents wanting it reworked and 19% being hesitant.

    82: Mirror 64-58. So 26% want it reworked for sure and 24% are hesitant.

    84.5: Elixir Collector 74-43. That's 30.5% of respondents insisting on a rework! 18% are not so sure.

    104.5: Mother Witch 94-43. This card crushed all competition. 38% wanted it reworked, with 18% not being sure.

    Extra questions

    These were optional, so not everyone responded to them. I asked if certain combos needed to be addressed.

    This is a bit more messy and arbitrary, but I just wanted to know since I've heard more complaints about these 3 combos compared to most other things.

    Should the Ice Wizard + Tornado combo be reworked?

    The majority says No. Of those who want it reworked, more people think that Tornado should be the addressed one, though not by a lot (by 5%).

    Should the Elixir Golem + Healer combo be reworked?

    I'll let the results speak for themselves here:

    • 19% say No.
    • 24% say Yes, through Battle Healer.
    • 19% say Yes, through Elixir Golem.
    • 24% say Yes, through both.
    • 15% say Yes, I don't care how.

    Should the Miner + Wall Breakers combo be reworked?

    The majority says No. Of those who want it reworked, 7% more want Wall Breakers to be tweaked.

    Thank you for your time!

    The majority answered What can I say, except, You're welcome!, but some were not down for it and answered No.

    Interpretation

    Most of the time, when people want something to be reworked, they are frustrated by how it plays and find it unfair or frustrating. So with this said, these reworks mostly align with what I've seen on reddit and other places and I think it's a good thing to look at the high end of the list to figure out how popular your rework is among the more dedicated community. I will still point out a few of my surprises and observations:

    • Magic Archer's mechanic was very criticized when he was used a lot. Even though only his HP was nerfed, he came out as one of the cards with the lowest score. This shows how some mechanics aren't inherently frustrating but can be if they become a big part of the meta.
    • The number of votes rose with card cost. People have stronger opinions on expensive cards.
    • Wizard, Witch, and Rage are the only cards that are very popular in ladder at 5k and unused at top ladder and challenges, and they were very voted. Other cards that find a bit of usage in challenges, like Valkyrie and Skeleton Army, weren't considered problematic at all.
    • I was most surprised by seeing Elixir Collector this high, and Skeleton Army this low.

    So yeah, I won't be saying much, I want you to take what you want from the results.

    Again, sorry for delaying it so much. I worked on this for more than 10 hours. University was rough and since the 2nd quarter starts in April, I decided to delay this a little knowing there won't be balances in March.

    submitted by /u/Mew_Pur_Pur
    [link] [comments]

    check this broken clip where i 3 crowned this dude on my screen but it shows in the clip he did and even shows the 3 crown ������

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 02:12 PM PST

    4.6k trophies rn, any improvements that I can make to this deck?

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 10:44 PM PST

    Any tips on my deck? 3900 trophies right now

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 04:12 PM PST

    Splash damage vs AOE

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 02:07 PM PST

    just reminding the deaf ears that dont care: The game does not have splash damage even tho it is desperately needed. The game uses AOE anywhere where splash damage should be even tho AOE and splash damage are conceptually different things.

    It seems like supercell doesnt care enough about this game for the change to ever happen but I'll explain why conceptually and concerning balance, AOE and splash damage cannot be used interchangeably.

    Cards like arrows, log, executioner, magic archer, bowler (where a projectile can hit multiple targets but doesnt involve an explosion) are all cards that should (and do) deal AOE dmg, AOE is after all Area Of Effect. Conceptually cards that are AOE are meant to deal consistent dmg to everything they touch.

    Cards like wizard, babay D, fireball, bomber, bomb tower, anything with a death bomb(anythings that has an explosion based attack)currently deal AOE but should deal splash damage. Thats just literally how explosions work, high dmg output at the center of the blast and progressively less dmg as you get further from its center.

    The best example of when this is a game breaking issue is when a death bomb is a couple tiles from a tower, visually it's impossible to tell where the AOE like is so no one even for sure knows until it explodes if its even within range or not and then it either deals 100% dmg to tower or 0% dmg to tower when really it should do a percent of its dmg based on how close to the explosion's center the tower actually is. As it is now there is just an abrupt stop at an imaginary line that determines 1389 dmg or 0 dmg. THATS NOT HOW EXPLOSIONS WORK

    Another pro of implementing splash dmg where it should be (aside from logic and consistency) as that itd help decks with splash troops maintain some form of swarm control without having to rely on using spells in addition to the currently AOE troops that should be splash. The difference in this case is going to be that small amounts of dmg will have a wider radius, giving troops like wizard more ability to stop troops like bats, but without making the new splash troops OP against tankier targets bc the attacks dmg on the main targetvwould be the same and anything at the splash radius edge would take less dmg but in a bigger circle.

    I know this is a long post and i know the devs probably dont care but i cant give up on this game that i used to love so much

    TL;DR splash dmg and AOE dmg are fundamentally different things but supercell pretends its okay to just use AOE in place of splash dmg

    submitted by /u/pootytangent
    [link] [comments]

    princes pin idea

    Posted: 09 Mar 2021 11:41 PM PST

    Any help with this deck got me too 4400

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 05:41 PM PST

    Deck any good? (At 4246)

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 09:27 PM PST

    Global Tournaments in Clash Royale 2021, Colorised

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 09:02 PM PST

    Poor 70wow. Poor guy just wanted to relive a little of the better days and these two trolls have zero empathy.

    Posted: 10 Mar 2021 04:45 PM PST
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